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Alternative silvicultural trajectories and their effect on forest vulnerability and resilience to global change (WHAT IF)

PRTR Call for Proposals Project

WHAT IF aims to project the evolution of the forest and its response to global change in different forestry management alternatives, to address processes of species decline or expansion, structural changes with effects on biodiversity or increased fire risk. One of the most important objectives of the project is the transfer of the results to the managers of natural areas, the forestry sector and society in general.

Line of action:

Knowledge generation and management

Status:

En ejecución

Spatial scale of work:

National

Line of research:

Strengthening green infrastructure, connectivity and ecological restoration

Execution date:

2023

Duration:

01/04/2023 - 31/12/2025

Total budget:

312.260,00 €

Amount of aid from the Biodiversity Foundation:

196.647,00 €

Coordinating entity:

National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA-CSIC)

Using 3D modeling, WHAT IF will project the effect of management on regeneration, composition, growth and stand dynamics from plots where different management alternatives have been applied. Forests located in National Parks where the management objective is to preserve the integrity of the ecosystem will be used as a reference. The development of a new generation of multidimensional spatiotemporal models, incorporating machine learning techniques, will allow simulating stand evolution under different management alternatives based on the current forest structure and composition and different climate and disturbance regime scenarios, with particular emphasis on forest fires.

Some of the actions included in the project are:

  • Selection of study sites (4 plots), measurement, 3D reconstruction, flight and processing of multi-spectral images.
  • Modeling of the natural regeneration process.
  • Development of databases for each study area.
  • dasometric and structural evaluation of the plots.
  • Compilation of historical records and characterization of changes over time in the structure and composition and management of the forest stand.
  • Selection and preprocessing of satellite images.
  • Identification of changes in forest stand structure and biotic and abiotic disturbances, using algorithms.
  • Dendroecological analysis and characterization of the response to climate of the different species.
  • Characterization of fire risk based on structure and biomass matrix variables to characterize the fuel model and potential fire behavior.
  • Simulations of silvicultural trajectories for each forest type under different management alternatives/disturbance regimes.
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Alternative silvicultural trajectories and their effect on forest vulnerability and resilience to global change (WHAT IF)