An initiative developed by the Foundation of the Autonomous University of Madrid, with the support of the Biodiversity Foundation of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and the Environment through its call for grants, has made it possible to create a predictive method to clarify real cases of forest fires. The model delves into the relationships between the types of intentional fires and the psychosocial profiles of their perpetrators in order to identify them.

To this end, within the framework of the project, a web environment was designed and programmed so that people arrested or charged with causing forest fires could fill out questionnaires completely anonymously. In addition, a series of relevant variables were identified to increase the predictive capacity of the model.

The model has served to consolidate a network of territorial managers for the completion of the questionnaires and the use of the predictive computer application. A network made up of members of SEPRONA (Nature Protection Service), regional police officers with competence in firefighting and forestry agents from the autonomous communities in which SEPRONA does not carry out these tasks.

The project has served to deepen the research of fire typologies and arsonist profiles, updating the database available since the first phase of the initiative.