The Director General of the OECC, Valvanera Ulargui, today analysed in a meeting with journalists the main results of the evaluation that has been carried out of the first National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), within the framework of the LIFE SHARA project.
The director general of the Spanish Office for Climate Change (OECC), Valvanera Ulargui, today analysed in a meeting with journalists the main results of the evaluation that has been carried out of the first National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), while outlining the steps to be taken for its update (PNACC-2), as the next plan must cover the 2021-2030 time horizon.
The evaluation process of the current PNACC has been carried out within the framework of the LIFE SHARA project ‘Awareness and knowledge for adaptation to climate change’, which aims to collaborate in the construction of a society better adapted to climate change, cooperating with all the actors involved, generating knowledge and increasing social awareness. The PNACC, adopted in 2006, was a pioneer in Europe, as it was the second adaptation planning document at the national level, following the Finnish Adaptation Strategy (2005).
The evaluation process of this plan formally began in February 2018, with the constitution of an advisory group, made up of experts from different fields: European institutions, the General State Administration, autonomous communities, the academic sector and the non-governmental sector. This advisory group has contributed with its assessments and proposals to guide the evaluation process.
The evaluation exercise, which has had the support of an external evaluator, has been fed by complementary sources, including the opinions, assessments and suggestions of people who carry out their professional activity in the field of adaptation in Spain, collected through a survey, completed by more than 300 people, and a series of in-depth interviews with key actors in the field of adaptation in Spain. Among the results of this survey, it should be noted that most of the people surveyed consider it urgent to act against the risks arising from climate change, with an urgency index of 8.7 on a scale of 10, although there are relevant differences in terms of the perception of risk for the different impacts.
Thus, more than 80% see a high risk from climate change in coastal areas, soils and desertification, and in biodiversity. 73% identify health impacts as also a high risk. However, a minority (around 40% and less) see this high risk in sectors such as finance and insurance, tourism and industry. Therefore, “it is clear that it is necessary to work so that these sectors know and can be prepared for the risks they will have to face,” said Valvanera Ulargui.
EMERGING ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS
PNACC-2 will also pay attention to emerging aspects in the field of adaptation to climate change, including the influence of social and demographic factors on vulnerability to climate change; the consideration of the risks in Spain that derive from the effects of climate change beyond our borders, or the role of lifestyles in building resilience to climate change, among others.
Based on the evaluation work, 38 recommendations are specified for the development of a future National Adaptation Plan, ranging from general issues, necessary resources, structure of the plan, new topics and work approaches, regulations and public policies, generation of knowledge, mobilization of actors, participation and governance or evaluation and monitoring.
The evaluation identifies some important achievements of the Plan, highlighting that:
-It has made it possible to place adaptation on the agendas of institutions, both at the state level and at the regional and local levels. Today, adaptation is already occupying its own space in the different public policies, plans and strategies implemented in almost all the autonomous territories and in many city councils.
-In addition, it has helped to channel economic and technical resources towards adaptation, making it possible to advance in the generation of knowledge, the mobilisation of actors, the awareness of society and the progressive awareness of the need to adapt the different sectors and geographical territories to the climate crisis.
-It has contributed to the mobilization of relevant actors in the field of adaptation, incorporating them into the public debate on the subject and opening spaces for reflection, exchange, mutual learning and joint work.
-It has provided regionalised climate change projections for the 21st century, corresponding to different emission scenarios, accessible to anyone interested through the climate change scenario viewer, the result of the work of the Spanish Office for Climate Change, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) and the Biodiversity Foundation and which can be accessed at this link.
REGIONALIZED SCREENINGS
In this regard, the regionalised projections for Spain, based on the climate models used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), outline future trends that, in essence, represent a deepening of the evolution already observed:
-Maximum and minimum temperatures show a clear increase, progressive throughout the 21st century, greater in summer and for the scenario with the most emissions. The maximum and minimum temperatures of summer and autumn show a more intense increase than those of winter and spring, with the warming being greater in the interior and eastern areas than in the northern areas.
-Rainfall tends to decrease, moderately, in most of Spain by the end of the twenty-first century; The estimates are more reliable in the river basins of the south of the peninsula as there is more agreement between the projections, although there is an appreciable dispersion in the values.
-Cloudiness, in general, shows a slight decrease throughout the 21st century for the scenario with the most emissions, except in the north and Mediterranean region in winter.
-Real evapotranspiration, in general, shows a slight decrease by the end of the century under the most emissive scenario, except in mountainous areas and in winter.
Importantly, the estimated temperature increases are very similar for the different emissions scenarios over the next two decades. On longer timescales, the rate of warming becomes more dependent on the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectory followed, with higher increases (> 0.3°C per decade) in high-emission scenarios, particularly after 2050.
In line with what has already been observed, some climate-related extreme events will tend to intensify. Thus, projections indicate that, in the future, droughts will tend to be longer and more frequent. Heat waves, on the other hand, will be more frequent, longer and more intense.
The full PNACC evaluation document can be downloaded at this link.
