Line of action:

Drivers of biodiversity loss

Status:

Finalizado

Execution date:

2023

End date:

2025

Total budget:

€250,000.00

Amount of aid from the Biodiversity Foundation:

€200,000.00

Project web page:

https://blogs.upm.es/aguagrada/

Given the decrease in water availability for agriculture caused by climate change in Mediterranean environments, it is necessary to make efficient use of water in food production. As stated in the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC), it is essential to know the water demand for agricultural use before and after adaptation to climate change. In turn, it is necessary to optimize watershed monitoring.

Therefore, this initiative proposes a monitoring and modeling system at sub-basin scale and scalable to larger basins, capable of quantifying the water demand for agricultural use under different scenarios of climate, management, socioeconomic and policy conditions. The results of present and future water demands are expressed in PNACC indicators, as the project aims to contribute directly to its implementation.

The main objective is to develop and apply a method for assessing agricultural water demand applicable at the sub-basin and basin scale, before and after adaptation to climate change.

Specific goals include:

• Design a methodology and optimal monitoring of water demand for agricultural use applicable at the sub-basin and basin scale using PNACC indicators, replicable and scalable to other regions and even at the national level.
• Analyze water demand for agricultural use in the future situation with and without adaptation to climate change.
• Co-create with farmers the selection of agricultural practices and climate change adaptation measures to optimize agricultural water demand at the sub-basin and basin scale and ensure environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. Analyze possible incentives for inclusion in eco-regimes or agri-environmental programs of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and study the best ways of implementation, from a multidisciplinary approach.

• Literature review on watershed monitoring and hydrological and crop modeling.
• Establishment and biophysical, political and socioeconomic characterization of a pilot case: “Arroyo de la Balisa” hydrographic sub-basin, within the Cea-Eresma-Adaja systems in the Duero river basin, in Segovia.
• Creation of a multi-stakeholder platform with the agents involved.
• Analysis of historical water demand for agricultural use in the sub-basin, and transformation of the results into indicators used by the PNACC.
• SWAT model repair for the sub-basin.
• Parameterization of the Aquacrop model for crops in the sub-basin.
• Collection of satellite images and incorporation into SWAT.
• Simulation of the reference or BASELINE with SWAT and Aquacrop.
• Spatial and temporal optimization of the monitoring network, including detection of extremes.
• Selected climate change projections.
• Climate change impact: simulations of agricultural water demand under climate change scenarios with BASELINE agricultural practices, including analysis of extremes. Risk mapping.
• Pre-selection of practices and adaptations to be simulated on the multi-actor platform with the main agents involved.
• Adaptation to climate change: simulation of the demand for agricultural use in climate change scenarios with adaptation practices based on current eco-regimes, as well as the possibilities for improvement using other adaptation strategies contemplated in the PNACC and the environmental programs of Castilla y León, including analysis of extremes.
• Socioeconomic evaluation of selected adaptations.
• Presentation of results, discussion and consensus on the selection of practices in the multi-stakeholder platform with the main agents involved.
• Interview of expert stakeholders for the development of criteria for 1) to generate monitoring and aggregation information on water demand for agricultural use in the sub-basin and in higher order basins, to facilitate coordination and scaling up, and 2) conditions for replicability in other basins, in other regions, even on a national scale.
• Dissemination and communication of the project.

• A comprehensive methodological model has been developed to assess agricultural water demand and climate change adaptation strategies in rural areas.
• The pilot case, focused on the Arroyo de la Balisa (SCAB) hydrographic sub-basin in Segovia, has provided a reproducible analysis framework that combines hydrological modelling, agronomic simulations and multi-stakeholder participation, providing scientific and applied
  knowledge for the planning of sustainable water management in the agricultural sector.
• A bibliographic review of 51 scientific papers has been carried out to identify the main advances in hydrological and crop modelling. From this base, the physical, agrarian and institutional characterization of the sub-basin was carried out, and a multi-stakeholder platform was constituted that validated the assumptions of the model and prioritized adaptation strategies through a participatory process with 40 representatives of the sector.
• SWAT (hydrological) and AquaCrop (agronomic) models were applied to estimate agricultural water demand under current and future climate scenarios, generating a baseline and projections up to 2100. The results made it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation measures, such as the modernization of irrigation, the implementation of eco-regimes and the change of crops and varieties.
• The socio-economic analysis carried out made it possible to assess the viability of the measures from the perspective of local farmers and ranchers, identifying incentives, barriers and priorities for their adoption.