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The holm oak forest (Quercus ilex) represents an ecosystem and a landscape characteristic of the Mediterranean region whose conservation is potentially threatened by the atmospheric deposit of nitrogenous pollutants, considered one of the main threats to the conservation of biodiversity. In addition, the holm oak forest is considered a habitat of Community interest within the framework of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), which requires the assessment of the conservation status of these types of habitats, which requires a quantification of the impact of pressures and the assessment of future conservation prospects.

This project has worked on the development of a methodological tool that allows the evaluation of the pressure exerted by the effects of air pollution on forest ecosystems of the Natura 2000 Network. This system, which considers both future projections of pollutant emissions and climate change. It has been based on dynamic modelling, a methodology for simulating and analysing the temporal behaviour of complex systems.

The general objective pursued by the project has been to develop a tool based on dynamic modelling of forest ecosystems for the assessment of the impacts and threats of air pollution and climate change on Mediterranean forests. The purpose is that this evaluation allows planning management strategies that ensure the conservation of biodiversity.

The specific objectives were as follows:

• Parameterization and adaptation of the ForSAFE dynamic model for the species Quercus ilex. This model is one of the most complete for the simulation of the cycles of water, carbon, nutrients and other chemical elements in forest ecosystems. It also includes dynamic descriptions of photosynthesis and tree growth, among other aspects.
• Review of the performance of the model for its application in conservation management.

• Monitoring of a forest area on a plot located in the Palacio Valdés de Tres Cantos Forest Park (Madrid), within the Regional Park of the Upper Manzanares Basin and the protected area as a Site of Community Importance and Special Area of Conservation (SCI/SAC) Manzanares River Basin, within the Natura 2000 Network. Soil and soil water sampling was also carried out, obtaining 115 samples in total (30 and 85 samples respectively) in 3 plots of Quercus ilex belonging to the monitoring network to obtain information on soil organic matter and establish a comparison of the simulated data with real data on soil water chemistry.
• Prediction of the future state of an oak forest in different scenarios of climate change and air pollution through the use of simulations.
• Application of the generated tool to forest management and the assessment of biodiversity conservation: critical loads (nitrogen deposition ranges proposed by the Air Convention) defined for the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen pollutants in a context of global change including climate change and air pollution (variations in tropospheric ozone concentrations and in the deposition of pollutants) were evaluated. nitrogen), as well as the interactions between both factors.
• Application of results to the development of national and international environmental protection policies : a presentation of the results of the project was made at the meeting of the ICP Modelling and Mapping working group of the United Nations Air Convention of 2021 and at the international congress Air Pollution Threats to Plant Ecosystems held in Cyprus. In addition, an informative meeting was held with Competent Authorities of the Sub-Directorate General of Forest Policy and Fight against Desertification of the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) and they reported to the Sub-Directorate General of Air Quality and Industrial Environment of MITECO two reports with the results generated.
• Environmental awareness and public awareness of the effects of air pollution on natural heritage and biodiversity: different educational materials have been developed to raise awareness among school students in Madrid about the emission of nitrogenous compounds and greenhouse gases and their effects on ecosystems. On the other hand, both an informative diptych and an interactive panel were designed, which were exhibited in the Palacio Valdés Nature Classroom (Madrid). Finally, a short video was recorded that deals with the existing scientific knowledge behind the problems derived from air pollution.
• Parameterization of the ForSAFE model for Quercus ilex, by compiling information to give specific values to the parameters required by the model, mainly those dedicated to photosynthesis and growth of the species.
• Adaptation of the ForSAFE model, including information on restrictions derived from the summer drought typical of Mediterranean conditions.
• Dissemination and communication of the project through the publication of two news items and a press release on the entity’s website.

During the project, the dynamic ForSAFE model has been adapted to the conditions of Mediterranean forests to contribute to the development of environmental protection and conservation policies for holm oak forests in a context of global change, within the framework of the United Nations Air Convention and the European Union’s Habitats Directive. In particular, the models have been used to quantify the impact of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on Mediterranean forests with climate change scenarios. As preliminary results, it was obtained, on the one hand, that the critical loads seem adequate for the protection of holm oak forests in semi-arid climates; it was also concluded that the model generated could be used in the assessment of the future prospects of Mediterranean forest habitats, within the framework of the Habitats Directive.

Two forest management proposals and two future climate change scenarios have been successfully modelled, which will allow the competent administrations to have a tool that will allow the effects of different forest management measures to be predicted, optimising future decision-making. Finally, the entity highlights that the simulations carried out have shown quite reliability regarding soil moisture in climate change and air pollution scenarios.