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Preliminary results of the first edition of this project indicate that most of the Spanish vertebrate species included in the IUCN Red List
IUCN Red List
and with an outdated record that have been analyzed, require the utmost attention in the foreseen climate change scenarios.

Unfortunately, there is still a significant list of Red List species present in Spain that are outdated, as well as species that, although they have been re-evaluated, the recent worsening of their threat status could make them more vulnerable to climate change. Thus, according to the Spanish Committee of the IUCN, it is necessary to have robust predictions of their medium-term future in order to urge the competent authorities to take the necessary measures in time.

In this sense, the actions of this project are aimed at increasing the number of species analyzed, involving the maximum number of collaborating entities in these actions and continuing with the dissemination of the results.

The overall objective of the project has been to increase the number of distribution models in climate change scenarios for species present in Spain that are threatened in the IUCN Red List and to raise awareness of those with the worst prospects.

The specific objectives were as follows:

• Develop new species distribution models using the favorability function for threatened terrestrial vertebrate species, included in the IUCN Red List, in the climate change scenarios proposed in the AdapteCCa platform.
• Propose concrete measures to avoid and/or mitigate the negative effects on the most affected species according to the results obtained in the models.
• Urge, if necessary, the IUCN of the need and urgency to re-evaluate some of the species analyzed.
• Generate an information-sensitization campaign for social networks and web.

• Selection of the species to be studied, as well as the climatic variables and scenarios to be used. Finally, the following 10 species were chosen: Iberian imperial eagle(Aquila adalberti), rabbit(Oryctolagus cuniculus), Mediterranean pond turtle (Mauremys leprosa), mountain lizard (Iberolacerta monticola), Pallaresan lizard (Iberolacerta aurelioi), hare (Lepus castroviejoi), Canary Island shrew(Crocidura canariensis), bearded vulture(Gypaetus barbatus), Balearic toad (Alytes muletensis) and black-headed tortoise(Testudo graeca).
• Development of species distribution models under different climate change scenarios by applying the favorability function. A total of 10 distribution models and 110 projections (19 models for each species) were made.
• Analysis of the results of the models and proposal of lines of action in line with the future prospects of the species. The results report includes a detailed description of all the models, methodology and results, as well as a fact sheet for each species that includes a brief description of the species, its current distribution, the current favorability model and the comparison with the different scenarios, as well as brief conclusions on what the models predict.
• Submitting a report on the status of the species with the most negative prognosis to the IUCN Red List office.
• Dissemination and communication of the project, through the creation of files of the different species studied in the project, a digital infographic and a brochure, the holding of 11 talks and a meeting with the members of the CeIUCN to publicize the results of the project, the preparation of a Master’s Thesis with part of the results of the project within the University Master’s Degree “Biological Diversity and Environment” of the University of Malaga, the sending of 3 communications to the II Ibero-American Congress of Biogeography and the XV Congress of the Spanish Society for the Conservation and Study of Mammals (SECEM), etc.

In this work, ten species of threatened vertebrates in Spain have been analyzed and relevant and useful conclusions have been obtained to improve the management of these species for conservation purposes. Specifically, the potential effect of different climate change scenarios on the distribution of these species has been evaluated: Iberian imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti), rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), pond turtle (Mauremys leprosa), mountain lizard (Iberolacerta monticola), pallaresa lizard (Iberolacerta aurelioi), broom hare (Lepus castroviejoi), Canarian shrew (Crocidura canariensis), bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus), Balearic toad (Alytes muletensis) and Moorish tortoise (Testudo graeca).

For this purpose, species distribution models (specifically the favorability function) have been used, a tool that allows predicting how climate change could affect distributions, providing precise spatial information on the vulnerability of these species. For the construction of the models, a series of climatic and non-climatic predictor variables (topographic, spatial and anthropic activity), as well as different climate change scenarios, have been selected.

As main conclusions, it was observed that the favourable potential distribution for six of these species (imperial eagle, rabbit, mountain lizard, Canarian shrew, bearded vulture and Balearic toad) could be negatively affected by the effects of climate change to a greater or lesser degree, with losses of areas with favourable conditions for these species. For the pond turtle, a positive evolution was found, while for the remaining three species (lizard, broom hare and black tortoise) hardly any significant differences were found in their favorable potential distribution.

In any case, these results confirm the need for IUCN and relevant entities to implement climate change adaptation measures for the most vulnerable species, both legislative and ex situ and in situ conservation measures, in the short term. For this reason, a report on the status of each of the species has been sent to the IUCN Red List office, paying attention to those with the worst prognosis.

Finally, the project has tried to inform and raise awareness among the population about the effects of climate change on the conservation status of these species, through different actions in digital format (such as the publication of an infographic or an informative brochure) as well as through talks and participation in the II Ibero-American Congress of Biogeography and the XV Congress of the SECEM.