Assessment of the impact of global change on snow dynamics and hydrology in the Sierra Nevada National Park area.

This project seeks to evaluate the impact of global change on snow dynamics and hydrology in the Sierra Nevada National Park (PNSN) area, by identifying highly significant indicator variables and unique control points.

The aim of the project is to analyse the effects of global change on the high mountain hydrology of the study area, in particular, on the spatio-temporal distribution of snow at different time scales; to estimate this impact on the flow regime of the river network in the PNSN, with emphasis on the dry season; to establish indicator variables of this impact and its variation thresholds for different levels of it, as well as to locate suitable control points in the study area and provide qualified information to the affected sectors.

The objectives are expected to be achieved by carrying out the following activities:

• Projection of climate scenarios, validated for Sierra Nevada, on meteorological variables at the hydrological modelling scale.
• Complete hydrological simulation of future scenarios with statistical uncertainty propagation throughout Sierra Nevada.
• Representation and analysis of the results with special attention to the following aspects: snow, soil moisture, evaporation and flow.
• Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the spatio-temporal distribution of snow on a seasonal, annual and multiannual scale.
• Assessment of the impact of climate change on flows and, particularly, on summer breaks, assessing the risk of increased drought.
• Zoning within the Park area, according to the magnitude of the changes in the presence of snow and the possible vulnerability of ecosystems to them.
• Identification of the points with the greatest sensitivity, to detect the estimated trends in the variables indicating global change.
• Programme for the dissemination of the results of the project.

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