Global warming of the oceans is causing fish to move northwards, migrations at depth and advance their phenology. Currently, the assessment and management of exploited species do not take into account the effects of climate change. The incorporation of such effects can be key to the viability of certain species that are in a delicate situation.

In this context, the AZTI Foundation launched the project “Climate scenarios of vulnerable marine resources in Spain (CLIREMAR)” with the support of the Biodiversity Foundation, which has evaluated the effects of climate change on the fisheries of Spanish fleets, through the future simulation of 4 relevant and exploited species: eel, bluefin tuna, Atlantic bigeye tuna, and Cantabrian anchovies. To this end, the historical series have been analysed and ecological niche models of the stocks and their projection under climate scenarios have been developed, which have made it possible to establish the magnitude of the impact, incorporate the possible negative effects of climate change in the assessment of the stocks, and define management strategies for the administration and adaptation of the sector. The models used have been based on GAMs (Generalized Additive Models) that have been extrapolated to future climate change scenarios from the 5th IPCC report (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The results obtained allow us to conclude the impacts for each of the species.

From the analysis of the four species, they conclude that the eel is the most vulnerable species to climate change and probably harmed in the Iberian Peninsula. It aims to intensify and accelerate existing conservation measures and to keep anthropogenic mortality as close to zero as possible to counteract the likely detrimental impact of climate change. For the rest of the species, it is suggested to monitor the trends of their populations and improve the knowledge of the possible impacts of climate change.