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The Tecnalia Research & Innovation Foundation points out that hydroelectric production, key to the transition to a more sustainable energy model, is linked to available water resources, being especially sensitive to climate change. In order for relevant actors in the sector to plan their adaptation strategies, existing hydrological projections need to be processed and combined with sectoral information.

In addition, it indicates that the agents of the energy sector lack the necessary capacities and resources to carry out these tasks, so this project has made it possible to overcome this barrier thanks to the development of a methodology and a computer tool that simplifies the acquisition of available climate information and its processing, considering specific information from each facility to generate projections of available resources and energy generation.

Thus, these tools aim to make it easier for agents in the sector to adapt the activity of hydroelectric production to climate change, assessing existing uncertainties in this regard and facilitating decision-making in aspects such as repowering, management strategies, new developments, etc.

The general objective of the project has been to enhance the evaluation of the effects of the hydrological scenarios projected for the 21st century on hydroelectric generation through the definition of a methodology specifically adapted to the requirements of the sector and the available information. To this end, it is proposed to develop a tool to facilitate its application and a pilot analysis of Naturgy’s hydroelectric plants with this tool, as well as the dissemination of the products generated among the relevant agents in the sector.

The specific objectives were as follows:

• Collect climate information and tools available to assess the impact of climate change on the hydropower sector.
• Establish the information requirements for decisions involved in the adaptation of the hydropower sector to climate change.
• Promote and speed up the assessment of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric generation by agents in the sector.
• Generation of information about the effects of the hydrological scenarios projected for the 21st century on hydroelectric generation.
• Increase the planning capacity of the sector considering hydrological scenarios projected for the 21st century.

• Analysis of the information and tools available to assess the impact of climate change on the hydroelectric sector, through a bibliographic review of scientific publications, websites, portals providing information, published projects, tools and models available in the fields of climate information and methodologies, models and/or tools for simulating the climate impact on hydroelectric generation.
• Analysis of the potential scenarios for the application of the methodology and its information requirements, based on an evaluation of the decisions to which the project can contribute useful information.
• Development of a methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on hydroelectric generation.
• Development of the computer tool for the assessment of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric generation.
• Calibration of the methodology and tool developed, applying them in hydroelectric power plants operated by Naturgy in Spain.
• Evaluation of the effect of climate change on the generation of 6 hydroelectric power plants operated by Naturgy.
• Coordination and transfer of products to 17 other relevant agents in the sector.
• Communication and dissemination of the project through publications on the entity’s social networks and the AdapteCCa website and the holding of a specific virtual workshop .

Generally speaking, there is now a growing demand for information to assess and quantify (in energy and economic terms) the risk that climate change poses to the energy sector. This information is required both by energy and hydrological planners and, increasingly, by the companies involved. In this sense, it must be considered that hydroelectric production, which is key to the transition to a more sustainable energy model, is particularly sensitive to climate change, as it is directly linked to available water resources.

The project, “Evaluation of the effects of hydrological scenarios projected for the 21st century on hydroelectric generation”, created with the aim of providing more resources to agents in the sector, has developed a methodology that simplifies the evaluation of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric generation and developed an easy-to-use computer tool that guides the user in the acquisition and processing of existing hydrological projections, in addition to allowing the evaluation of the behavior of simple hydroelectric systems.

The methodology and the tool have been validated and calibrated with real information, provided by hydroelectric plants operated by Naturgy. With this validation , it has been shown that it is useful for them to achieve the following objectives:

• To serve as a guide in the development of studies of vulnerability of hydroelectric generation to climate change.
• Facilitate the collection and processing of climate information (historical and projected flows).
• Facilitate the estimation of hydroelectric production of simple systems from the available resource.
• Facilitate the analysis of the contribution of the hydroelectric sector to drought control (evaluating the effect that infrastructure has on the prevention of very low flows and maintenance of ecological flow) and to flood control (evaluating the impact that not accumulating water in reservoirs could have).
• Facilitate the comparison between future scenarios and the monetization of risk based on projected flows that take climate change into account, seeking to detect potential changes in annual and seasonal generation.

As a conclusion of the study, it is highlighted that the methodology developed allows a quantitative approach to the risk analysis and establishes priorities for future detailed studies, necessary for the plants in which greater risks are observed and for the design of adaptation measures.

In addition, after applying the methodology considering the scenarios available in a set of pilot uses, the effectiveness of the hydroelectric infrastructure for modulating and smoothing changes in flows is evident, observing that the management carried out in the reservoirs softens the effect of changes in flows for the plants located downstream. It has also been proven that reservoirs allow the extremes (very high and very low flows) to be managed in order to optimise their use. Finally, it has been found that the infrastructure associated with hydroelectric generation (including reservoirs) is key to maintaining ecological flows, with an even more important contribution in climate change scenarios.

All the work produced has been presented in two forums, where very favorable opinions were collected, both on the subject and on the work carried out. One of these forums was internal, bringing together a wide representation of Naturgy and with various profiles related to the subject of the study. The other forum, on the other hand, was a workshop open to other agents in the sector in which the Spanish Office for Climate Change, several energy companies (Naturgy, Iberdrola, Endesa) and Red Eléctrica de España actively took part. Other types of agents linked to public administrations, universities, development banks and consultancy also attended.

Finally, the entity wanted to highlight that there is still a long way to go, which, necessarily, must pay attention to the reinforcement of research in this area, investment in specific detailed studies and the adaptation of the sector, which allows optimal use of hydroelectric infrastructure compatible with the conservation and improvement of the state of our rivers.