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SURPRISES: Building anticipatory governance of social-ecological tipping points in transformative change planning for ocean sustainability

Biodiversa +

In the face of the imminent global ‘polycrisis’ caused by climate change, biodiversity loss and growing inequalities, there is an urgent need to promote a social transformation that allows the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and the services that nature provides to people (nature’s contributions to people, NCP). However, the form and manner of this transformative change will vary in different contexts, and the diversity of peoples, their knowledge systems and aspirations need to be taken into account.

There is a growing interest in the idea of positive tipping points, whereby it is possible to harness the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems to achieve desired transformative change. However, it is important to consider the feedback loops that push systems towards negative change and what the potential risks associated with the “positive tipping point” are, raising critical questions such as “positive for whom?” and “positive where?”.

Line of action:

Knowledge generation and management

Status:

En ejecución

Execution date:

2026

End date:

2029

Project web page:

https://www.biodiversa.eu/2026/04/03/surprises/

The aim of the SURPRISES project is to understand and drive transformative changes to achieve a sustainable future in the coastal and marine domains, as well as equitable and resilient futures in African ocean basins, in the face of unexpected socio-ecological dynamics.

  • Literature review, interviews with experts, surveys and analysis of workshop results.
  • Dialogues with stakeholders, development of multi-horizon action plans (13, 35, 50 years), decision support tools and early warning proposals.
programa
linea de actuación

SURPRISES: Building anticipatory governance of social-ecological tipping points in transformative change planning for ocean sustainability