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Analysis of the effect of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates included in the IUCN Red List, using species distribution models

MITECO

A total of 18 models have been made for each species (5 of them represented cartographically), which makes a total of 180 models (50 represented by cartograph).
For four of the species analysed, there is a considerable decrease in favourable areas in the future according to the climate change scenarios used.
Letters have been sent to several members of IUCN global to inform them of this situation and the importance of allocating funds to reassess the most threatened and vulnerable species.

  • A total of 18 models have been made for each species (5 of them represented cartographically), which makes a total of 180 models (50 represented by cartograph).
  • For four of the species analysed, there is a considerable decrease in favourable areas in the future according to the climate change scenarios used.
  • Letters have been sent to several members of IUCN global to inform them of this situation and the importance of allocating funds to reassess the most threatened and vulnerable species.

Line of action:

Drivers of biodiversity loss

Status:

Finalizado

Execution date:

2019

In 2018, the Spanish Committee of the IUCN carried out a review of the IUCN Red List files of all the threatened species present in Spanish territory. As a result of this work, they detected a large number of species whose file had become "outdated", that is, more than ten years after their publication and, therefore, their evaluation. In this time, both ecological and environmental conditions had changed, and more accurate climate models had been developed.

Therefore, the project of the Spanish Committee of the IUCN has made it possible to update the analysis and evaluation of the potential effects of climate change on a total of 10 species of terrestrial vertebrates present in the Iberian Peninsula.


The project has aimed to analyse and assess the potential effect of the different climate change scenarios on threatened terrestrial vertebrate species in the Iberian Peninsula, included in the IUCN Red List, through:

  • The preparation of species distribution models.
  • The proposal of concrete measures to avoid/minimize negative effects.
  • The proposals for revision of the Red List.
  • Awareness and dissemination.

  • Design and execution of species distribution models using the favorability function.
  • Drafting of a document of recommended actions.
  • Campaign to disseminate the diagnosis obtained.

The IUCN Spanish Committee, in collaboration with its members, worked towards the following objectives:

  • Development of species distribution models using the favorability function for threatened terrestrial vertebrate species, included in the IUCN Red List, in the climate change scenarios proposed in the AdapteCCa Platform.
  • Proposal of concrete measures to avoid and mitigate the negative effects on the most affected species according to the results obtained in the models.
  • Information and dissemination campaign on the effects of climate change on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates monitored in the project.

The results showed for four of the species analysed a considerable decrease in favourable areas in the future according to the most extreme climate change scenarios. For the rest of the species, the forecasts either did not detect changes in the favorable areas, or they detected an increase. It is therefore recommended that the IUCN prioritize the reassessment of those species whose distributions could also decrease due to the effects of climate change, as well as develop adaptation measures, both legislative, ex situ and in situ conservation, in the recent term.


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Analysis of the effect of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates included in the IUCN Red List, using species distribution models