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The main objective of the project has been to analyse the changes in the connectivity of riparian habitats in the face of induced global warming .

The specific objectives were as follows:

• To calculate regionalized climate projections of temperature and precipitation in Castilla y León from the present to the year 2100.
• To establish the hydrographic network on the basis of the observed climatic variations and to determine the network of riparian habitats in the Duero River watershed.
• Analysis of ecological connectivity and study of the possible relationship between this connectivity and variations in the hydrographic network.
• Selection of critical areas for the maintenance and improvement of connectivity in the face of climate change.
• Ecological characterization of critical areas for the maintenance and improvement of connectivity in the face of climate change.
• Establishment of trends and proposal of management measures aimed at maintaining the critical areas detected for the maintenance of riparian habitats in the face of climate change in each of the climate scenarios analysed.

• Identification of the target hydrological network with the support of scientific articles, reports and related publications.
• Selection of climate scenarios for study.
• Parametric modelling. For the selected scenarios, the average annual temperatures and rainfall for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 will be determined.
• Study of the state of the art with the support of scientific articles, reports and related publications.
• Determination and weighting of parameters of the complete hydrographic network of the Duero River in each of the scenarios.
• Critical analysis of parameters under study.
• Determination of critical areas. Evaluation of the connectivity of the riparian habitats of the Duero River in the different climate change scenarios and identification of priority conservation connectors.
• Detection and evaluation of critical areas using remote sensing for the evaluation of the current trend.
• Fieldwork to assess the current trend of critical riparian habitats.
• Definition and methodological refinement.
• Determination and ecological characterisation of critical areas for the maintenance and improvement of connectivity in the face of climate change.
• Statistical analysis.
• Determination and creation of trends.

The DUEROCHANGE project has made it possible to study the climate projections in the Duero river basin for the coming years. According to the results of the project, climate projections point to a generalized increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation, a situation that compromises the connectivity of riparian habitats and aggravates fragmentation processes.

The main objective of the initiative has been to analyse the variation in the flows and connectivity of the riparian habitats of the Duero River hydrographic account in various climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100, evaluating the alterations in ecological connectivity. In this way, areas with critical values have been selected for each of the scenarios and years contemplated, in order to characterize these areas through fieldwork and remote sensors. These works have made it possible to carry out an ecosystem characterization, analysis of floristic diversity, calculation of channels in the sections of the watercourse to be studied and study of bioindicators.

The set of activities of this project has combined research, literature review and fieldwork that has resulted in six reports, one for each activity, published in open access on the project’s website. Within the framework of the project, a day was held to present the results, and a scientific article has been published in the journal Biodiversity and Conservation, and another one has been published in the journal Landscape & Urban Planning.