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The organization points out that Spain is one of the European countries with the greatest wealth of reptiles threatened by climate change. He also notes that this challenge has been addressed with niche models projected on the basis of climate change, but that their limitations call for complementary alternatives. Most of these studies examine direct effects (e.g., temperature increase) but not indirect effects (such as changes in primary production). This is why the Complutense University points out that understanding the underlying processes involves understanding the effect of temperature on primary production (the base of the food chain), which is complex because other factors of global change (such as, for example, land use) influence it.

This project aims to detect hot spots of protected reptile diversity where the temporal pattern of climate, primary production and/or habitat change over the last 20 years is significant. We will examine whether there is an interrelationship between these factors. For this purpose, time series data from satellite images will be integrated.

The main objective of the project has been to detect hot spots of protected reptile diversity where the temporal pattern of climate, primary production or habitat change over the last 20 years is significant. The project has focused on 59 species of terrestrial reptiles included in the List of Wild Species under Special Protection Regime and Spanish Catalog of Threatened Species (including 8 endangered and 6 vulnerable species), according to MITECO.

The specific objectives are:

• Collect and update information related to the ecological value of biodiversity hotspots and analytics aimed at detecting global change impacts.
• Collect and process data on the distribution of the study species.
• Determine the geographic distribution of hotspots of diversity of the reptile species under study.
• To examine whether there is spatial autocorrelation of hotspots of diversity of the study species.
• Identify hot spots of the studied biodiversity that may be located outside the Natura 2000 Network.
• Collect and process time series data for the last 20-21 years of temperature, precipitation, primary production indices and land use variables in the previously identified biodiversity hotspots.
• Identify biodiversity hotspots where the values of the environmental variables under study are permanently and significantly changing.
• To examine whether the variation of the environmental temporal pattern in the studied biodiversity hotspots depends on the protection status of the area that hosts them.
• To examine whether there is a cause-effect relationship between primary production rates and other environmental variables in biodiversity hotspots where the temporal pattern of primary production is significant.

• Compilation and review of scientific articles and reports related to the subject matter of the project.
• Generation of a database and maps of reptile species under special protection regime in Spain.
• Generation of a map of Spain of protected reptile diversity hotspots.
• Generation of a correlogram of Moran’s I index as a function of distances between protected Spanish reptile diversity hotspots.
• Integration of the map of biodiversity hotspots of study and the map of Spain of the Natura 2000 Network.
• Generation of a database with the time series (2000-2020) of the environmental variables under study in the required format for subsequent analysis.
• Analysis of time series data of the environmental variables under study at different scales.
• Analysis of the correlation coefficient (between each environmental variable and time) as a function of the protection category of the biodiversity hotspot areas.
• Construction of multivariate models to explain the temporal trend of primary production as a function of temperature, precipitation and land use at different scales.
• Generation of environmental change impact risk maps in biodiversity hotspots at different scales.
• Dissemination and communication of the project.

The REPROCLIM project has analyzed the temporal pattern of climate, primary production or habitat change over the last 20 years at sites of high ecological value for reptile species listed as having some degree of vulnerability. In total, the following have been detected almost 300 hot spotsand its distribution has revealed important areas for conservationThe main areas are in the Spanish Mediterranean region: Sistema Central, Bay of Cadiz, Doñana National Park, Sierra de Grazalema and Alcornocales Natural Park, and the Coastal and Transversal Mountain Range in Catalonia.

Among the endangered species considered are the Mediterranean tortoise(Testudo hermanni), the Aranese lizard (Iberolacerta aranica), the Pallaresan lizard (I. aurelioi), the Batueca lizard(I. martinezricai) and the agile lizard(Lacerta agilis). Vulnerable species include the black-headed slider(T. graeca), the Valverde lizard (Algyroides marchi), the Pyrenean lizard (I. bonnali) and the Leon lizard (Iberolacerta galani). A first simple analysis has shown the degree of coverage of the Natura 2000 Network on these hotspots of reptile diversity in the Iberian Peninsula. The project also emphasizes that only 45.5% of the hot spots are protected on more than 50% of their surface, and only 26.4% on more than 80%.

Within the framework of the initiative, a map of the Iberian Peninsula has been drawn up with the hot spots of species richness of terrestrial reptiles included in the List of Wild Species under Special Protection Regime and the Spanish Catalog of Threatened Species. This map shows the hot spots where there has been a permanent increase in mean annual temperature, in primary production estimated with the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), or both, over the last 20 years. According to the entity, the database associated with this map facilitates the assessment of a prioritized list of biodiversity hotspots that will make it possible to predict and prioritize where to focus resources for future conservation strategies. A significant temperature increase was detected in 61.3% of these hot spots. A significant change in primary production was detected in 38 % of the hot spots, with an increase in all but one. In 20 %, a significant increase in both temperature and primary production was detected.

Regarding the processes underlying the detected patterns, multivariate analyses showed that part of the increase in primary production in reptile hotspots is explained by the increase in temperature, which converges with the positive association detected at larger spatial scales. On the other hand, these analyses showed that changes in primary production are also explained by habitat changes observed through the CORINE Land Cover database.

Under the initiative, it was mainly observed that the change in forest area during the period 2000 – 2018 in these reptile diversity hotspots were related to an attenuation in the overall increase in primary productivity. Accordingly, future strategies can be based on the direct and indirect impacts of global change detected in biodiversity hotspot ecosystems (land use, temperature increase, and their effects on primary production). In addition, beyond the study species, time-series analyses of climate and primary production will serve to understand processes underlying the impacts of global change on habitats hosting biodiversity hotspots. It is also noteworthy that the methodology of this project developed for reptile species is applicable to other taxonomic groups.